10 June 2006

Saving Private Syria: The National Salvation Front Meeting In London

Let's all prey there would be the least possible chaos if this hopeful transition ever took place in Syria. However optimsm is vital for us Syrians to survive, things are not likely to change overnight even if the family is gone. Remember it's actually more than just a family, it's a whole system which has been there for few decades.
On another note, I guess few, probably none, of those in the Front for National Unity, had set views for tackling the big issues like the economy or peace with Israel. These are important bargaining cards and none of our politicians will ever spread them on the table. The Kurdish response about having his own mind about federalism that is not agreed on by the rest reveals as much.
However, let's not forget that the sole objective of this Front is to gather support to get rid of Asad, and nothing else. It's a front made for a specific purpose, and not a unified party.
And only Asad, not Baath, only the ruling family. Did you notice that? This is really difficult to imagine: The Baath, at the vital moment, withdraws his loyality from Asad, giving it to the rebels. The army is expected to do the same. I understand the Front is chasing every possible ally, and it's doubtless they'd find a lot of supporters in honest and educated Baath members. But the Baath as a whole organization? sorry I still can't picture it.
And hold on a second, what were we trying to do in the first place, if we ended up, after only a couple genocides and wiped out mountain villages, with Baath getting %80 instead of %98, and our freedom to elect either Khadam or Bainouni Gold Glasses, and permission for Kurds to loose the mobs once every four month in one northern city?
And we can't live without Mukhabarat, can we?
I don't trust this modern Bainouni character. Being modern and soft only makes me stick to my survival skills paranoia. Does being modern means he's got double the dogma the traditional Islamist has?. The answer is probably:"Aha". Honestly I never heard him speak though.
He answered the question about the Alawitis (If he considered it a non- Muslem sect) as an Imam not a politician and party leader. He said Alawitis were positively Muslems. But Alawitis are SYRIANS and that's it. It's their business if they were Muslems or not. Or is it not only their business Mr. Bainouni?
I still can't see how these people are going to pull this off. Khadam only said, in the Arabia interview I guess, that there will be no forign interference, only "civil disobedience". What civil disobedience, what is he talking about?! If we're looking at Khaddam arranging a white coup d'tate while Bainouni provides public support, they would definitly rely on the Baath and the army, while the streets will go fundemental by enthusiast MB crowd. So the Front would be true to their word, and "The Family" will be replaced by another family, because all the rest should be actually supporting the change. So, they will give us nothing but cosmitics and chewing gum for a long time before they can apply reforms to the institutions that gave them power. Don't get me wrong, ANY change is welcome. But we're in for a long ride my friends, and it's not going to be a high ride soon. So use your Syrian survival kit: Be optimist, but reasonably!

09 June 2006

Dreams a product of reality, Dreams will intimidate it.

insanity, punishment in the spirit of this love

08 June 2006

Future Syria: Islamist or Secular?

I suggest a closer look at what we brand here as Islamist. Political movements and government carrying Islamic agenda differ greatly from right to left. Let's forget the Sharia based laws. Because we'll still be depending on Sharia in any form of government. Actually we are, in the current secular system in Syria, concerning marriage, inheritance, custodianship and all kinds of social stuff.
I think an Islamist government views are ultimately decided by the public local version of the faith, rather than by the books. The great differences in the nature of the Islamist administrations in the occupied Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in the result of the different realities ( can you imagine Hamas claiming people need moral police?) Ideology seem to have no longer enough margins to play around today.
So it's quite logical to expect a still relatively secular Syria in the future, as the Syrian people today are more concerned about the economical hard facts than the sentimental wish to live under an Islamic brand. But, to say the least, it's sure tempting.
It will all depend on how the role and shape of secular opposition today ( primarily Communists and human rights societies) will evolve. Will they be able to counter the weight of the Islamic dream? Of course, the current regime wants to be the only one to be capable of that. And the West usually prefers to leave its options open.